Alright everybody, #Tumblr has indicated that they want to support #ActivityPub, but I think we are all a bit skeptical about how that might look. This thread is meant to collect #PredictionMarkets about how aspects of this might work out. They are all hosted on #ManifoldMarkets, so you don't need to worry about staking real money if you don't want to
Note that it will probably take a few days for these to settle, depending on activity
First up, will they allow you to follow an external #ActivityPub account from #Tumblr? This seems most likely to me, of these. I have created two markets, one for EoY 2023, one for EoY 2025
2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter
2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter-6da47e524d0f
We also have markets for whether you can follow a #Tumblr account from an external #ActivityPub account. I picked #Mastodon for convenience. This seems a little less likely to me, as it takes you away from their ads.
Again, 2023 and 2025
2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from
2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from-8c2db6d325e1
Lastly, a market about #ads. This one resolves to yes if #Tumblr injects ads into their #ActivityPub exposed feeds
https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-tumblr-implementing