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Alright everybody, has indicated that they want to support , but I think we are all a bit skeptical about how that might look. This thread is meant to collect about how aspects of this might work out. They are all hosted on , so you don't need to worry about staking real money if you don't want to

Note that it will probably take a few days for these to settle, depending on activity

Nov 26, 2022, 11:33 PM·Public·Fedilab
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Public

First up, will they allow you to follow an external account from ? This seems most likely to me, of these. I have created two markets, one for EoY 2023, one for EoY 2025

2023: manifold.markets/LivInTheLooki

2025: manifold.markets/LivInTheLooki

manifold.marketsWill Tumblr support following external ActivityPub accounts by EoY 202361% chance. Tumblr recently indicated they will be implementing ActivityPub support. It is unclear what timeline or subset of features Therefore this is part of a series of markets This market resolves instantly to YES if I am able to, without going through a 3rd party bridge, follow a Mastodon account from my Tumblr account
#ManifoldMarkets#PredictionMarkets#Fediverse
Public

We also have markets for whether you can follow a account from an external account. I picked for convenience. This seems a little less likely to me, as it takes you away from their ads.

Again, 2023 and 2025

2023: manifold.markets/LivInTheLooki

2025: manifold.markets/LivInTheLooki

manifold.marketsWill Tumblr support following from ActivityPub accounts by EoY 202357% chance. Tumblr recently indicated they will be implementing ActivityPub support. It is unclear what timeline or subset of features Therefore this is part of a series of markets This market resolves instantly to YES if I am able to, without going through a 3rd party bridge, follow a Tumblr account from my Mastodon account
#ManifoldMarkets#PredictionMarkets#Predictions
Public

Lastly, a market about . This one resolves to yes if injects ads into their exposed feeds

manifold.markets/LivInTheLooki

manifold.marketsConditional on Tumblr implementing support for following from ActivityPub, will they inject ads into the feed by EoY 2025?50% chance. Tumblr recently indicated they will be implementing ActivityPub support. It is unclear what timeline or subset of features Therefore this is part of a series of markets This market resolves to N/A if I am not able to, without going through a 3rd party bridge, follow a Tumblr account from my Mastodon account. It otherwise resolves YES if even a single ad is intentionally injected, and NO if not
#ManifoldMarkets#PredictionMarkets#Fediverse
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